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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
9
5
15
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
1
12
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
9
5
15
14
25
7
46
0
3
1
4
15
37
13
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
47
26
79
0
0
0
0
0
16
5
21
5
63
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
14
8
23
22
38
11
71
0
5
2
6
23
57
20
100

hitrate: 0.105 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
15.00 0.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.24 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.342 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: -0.003 true Heidke skill score: -0.100
Kuipers skill score: -0.342 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: -0.006 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.034 0.431 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.000 -0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.096 -0.037 0.013
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.167
probability of detection:
0.067 0.676 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.457 0.750
samples: 19 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 29.23 %coverage: 100.00