CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
16
4
20
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
17
5
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
16
4
20
15
20
8
43
0
1
1
2
15
37
13
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
73
18
91
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
9
0
77
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
6
31
23
31
12
66
0
2
2
3
23
57
20
100

hitrate: 0.045 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 1.16 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.432 Heidke skill score: -0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.025 true Heidke skill score: -0.239
Kuipers skill score: -0.432 Kuipers skill score: -0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.071 true Kuipers skill score: -0.224
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.152 -0.126 0.044
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.541 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.535 0.500
samples: 22 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 33.85 %coverage: 100.00