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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
15
30
15
60
0
0
0
0
18
32
15
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
60
40
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
23
46
23
92
0
0
0
0
28
49
23
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.508
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 1.88 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.262
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.262
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.150 0.484 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.087 0.014 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.500 0.000
samples: 5 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 7.69 %coverage: 100.00