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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
1
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
1
8
15
28
14
57
0
0
0
0
18
32
15
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
50
13
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
50
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
2
12
23
43
22
88
0
0
0
0
28
49
23
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.477
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 1.78 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.215
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.215
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.130 0.459 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.002 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.875 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.509 0.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00