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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
3
1
5
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
29
14
59
1
3
1
5
18
32
15
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
0
14
14
0
0
14
14
43
14
71
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
45
22
91
2
5
2
8
28
49
23
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.477
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.33 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 1.84 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.215
true Heidke skill score: 0.079 true Heidke skill score: 0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.215
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.056 0.468 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.222 -0.120 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.041 -0.001 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.906 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.508 0.800
samples: 7 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 10.77 %coverage: 100.00