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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
1
1
2
2
2
6
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
16
28
13
57
2
2
2
6
18
32
15
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
22
0
22
0
0
11
11
22
22
22
67
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
25
43
20
88
3
3
3
9
28
49
23
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.462
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 1.78 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.192
true Heidke skill score: -0.145 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.192
true Kuipers skill score: -0.154 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.459 0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.125 -0.098 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.028 -0.002 0.035
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.509 0.667
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00