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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
0
4
16
23
21
60
0
0
0
0
17
26
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
75
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
0
6
25
36
33
94
0
0
0
0
27
41
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 2.31 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.037
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.050 0.365 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.036 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.885 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.617 0.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00