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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
25
20
62
0
1
1
2
17
26
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
39
31
97
0
2
2
3
27
41
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.406
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.38 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.109
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.109
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.397 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.962 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.597 0.500
samples: 2 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 3.12 %coverage: 100.00