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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
26
21
63
0
0
0
0
17
26
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
100
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
41
33
98
0
0
0
0
27
41
33
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.422
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.42 0.00
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: 0.133
true Heidke skill score: nan true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.133
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.059 0.413 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.011 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.587 0.000
samples: 1 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 1.56 %coverage: 100.00