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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
16
25
21
62
0
0
0
0
17
26
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
25
39
33
97
0
0
0
0
27
41
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.406
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.38 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.109
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.109
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.056 0.397 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 -0.005 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.962 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.597 0.000
samples: 2 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 3.12 %coverage: 100.00