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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
16
24
22
62
1
0
0
1
17
25
22
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
25
25
50
25
0
0
25
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
38
34
97
2
0
0
2
27
39
34
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.48 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.381 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.006 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.960 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.613 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00