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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
24
19
17
60
0
0
0
0
26
21
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
50
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
38
30
27
94
0
0
0
0
41
33
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.86 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.071 0.306 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.683 0.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00