CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
24
20
15
59
0
0
0
0
26
21
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
17
33
83
0
17
0
17
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
38
31
23
92
0
0
0
0
41
33
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.81 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.014
threat score:
0.400 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.069 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.400 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.001 0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.952 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.661 0.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00