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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
2
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
24
23
13
60
0
2
0
2
26
25
13
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
0
40
0
0
20
20
0
40
0
40
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
38
36
20
94
0
3
0
3
41
39
20
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.40 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.125 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.077 0.371 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 -0.154 -0.154
equitable threat score:
0.047 -0.011 -0.028
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.920 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.617 1.000
samples: 5 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 7.81 %coverage: 100.00