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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
24
12
62
0
1
1
2
26
25
13
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
38
19
97
0
2
2
3
41
39
20
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.48 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.381 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.006 0.044
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.960 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.613 0.500
samples: 2 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 3.12 %coverage: 100.00