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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
1
3
0
4
0
0
0
0
4
3
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
21
26
11
58
0
0
0
0
24
26
13
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
22
56
11
33
0
44
0
0
0
0
44
33
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
3
8
33
41
17
92
0
0
0
0
38
41
21
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.460
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 1.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.23 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.190
true Heidke skill score: 0.449 true Heidke skill score: 0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.190
true Kuipers skill score: 0.423 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.500 0.750 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.448 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.206 0.625 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.061 0.000
probability of detection:
0.750 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.250 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.552 0.000
samples: 9 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00