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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
20
26
14
60
0
1
0
1
23
27
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
75
0
0
75
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
25
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
31
41
22
94
0
2
0
2
36
42
22
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.22 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: 0.429 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.130 0.426 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.088 0.019 -0.015
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.130 0.963 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.567 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00