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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
23
25
14
62
0
0
0
0
23
27
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
50
0
50
0
25
25
50
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
36
39
22
97
0
0
0
0
36
42
22
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.30 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.391 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.031 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.926 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.597 0.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00