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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109-200111

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
4
0
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
21
27
14
62
1
0
0
1
23
27
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
50
0
0
50
25
0
0
25
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
33
42
22
97
2
0
0
2
36
42
22
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.30 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.156
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.156
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.435 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.024 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.043 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.565 1.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00