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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
1
0
0
1
3
2
1
6
5
2
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
27
15
13
55
3
2
1
6
31
17
15
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
11
22
11
0
0
11
33
22
11
67
56
22
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
3
43
24
21
87
5
3
2
10
49
27
24
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.50 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.24 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.105 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.031 0.263 0.050
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.080 -0.059
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.004 -0.023
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.032 0.882 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.727 0.833
samples: 9 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00