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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
1
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
29
15
14
58
0
0
1
1
31
17
15
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
29
0
57
14
0
14
29
0
0
14
14
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
46
24
22
92
0
0
2
2
49
27
24
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 3.41 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.097 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.094 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.061 0.250 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.087 -0.167 0.417
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.015 0.052
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.065 0.882 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.741 0.000
samples: 7 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 11.11 %coverage: 100.00