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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
4
1
2
7
5
3
2
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
19
15
57
4
1
2
7
27
20
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
20
0
30
40
10
20
70
50
30
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
30
23
89
6
2
3
11
42
31
27
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.85 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: 0.221 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: 0.274 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.328 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.355 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.030 0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.714
samples: 10 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 15.62 %coverage: 100.00