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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
1
5
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
18
16
59
2
2
1
5
27
20
17
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
29
29
29
14
71
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
28
25
92
3
3
2
8
42
31
27
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.297
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.95 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.055
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.055
true Kuipers skill score: -0.219 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.295 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.167 -0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.695 0.800
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00