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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
1
9
6
2
1
9
0
1
0
1
10
7
2
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
1
9
28
16
9
53
0
1
0
1
32
21
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
5
47
32
11
5
47
0
5
0
5
53
37
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
2
14
44
25
14
84
0
2
0
2
51
33
16
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 1.29 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.52 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.199 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.197 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.267 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.108 0.276 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.072 -0.123 -0.036
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.041 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.400 0.286 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.762 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.778 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.698 1.000
samples: 19 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 30.16 %coverage: 100.00