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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
4
1
2
7
2
4
0
6
8
6
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
28
16
10
54
2
4
0
6
32
21
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
6
0
19
25
6
13
44
13
25
0
38
50
38
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
44
25
16
86
3
6
0
10
51
33
16
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 1.17 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.57 0.60
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.169 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.197 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.222 0.083 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.271 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.067 -0.173 -0.103
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.049 -0.063
probability of detection:
0.250 0.167 0.000
probability of detection:
0.062 0.762 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.857 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.704 1.000
samples: 16 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 25.40 %coverage: 100.00