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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
1
1
1
3
6
3
1
10
9
6
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
24
16
7
47
6
3
1
10
32
21
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
11
32
5
5
5
16
32
16
5
53
47
32
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
3
10
38
25
11
75
10
5
2
16
51
33
16
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.50 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.24 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: -0.145 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: -0.158 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.154 0.125 0.077
threat score:
0.056 0.308 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.083 0.007 -0.101
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.009 -0.034
probability of detection:
0.222 0.167 0.250
probability of detection:
0.062 0.762 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.900
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.660 0.900
samples: 19 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 30.16 %coverage: 100.00