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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
1
5
2
2
1
5
4
4
1
9
10
6
3
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
1
5
24
17
9
50
4
4
1
9
32
21
11
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
0
5
26
11
11
5
26
21
21
5
47
53
32
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
2
8
38
27
14
78
6
6
2
14
50
33
17
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.344
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.83 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.38 0.82
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.016
true Heidke skill score: 0.102 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.016
true Kuipers skill score: 0.120 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.364 0.222 0.091
threat score:
0.121 0.315 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.164 0.057 -0.044
equitable threat score:
0.049 0.016 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.400 0.333 0.333
probability of detection:
0.125 0.810 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.600 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.660 0.889
samples: 19 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 29.69 %coverage: 100.00