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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
1
15
4
0
0
4
1
2
0
3
11
10
1
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
8
1
15
31
11
2
44
1
2
0
3
38
21
3
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
36
5
68
18
0
0
18
5
9
0
14
50
45
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
13
2
24
50
18
3
71
2
3
0
5
61
34
5
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.36 0.40 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.39 2.10 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.275 true Heidke skill score: -0.192
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.290 true Kuipers skill score: -0.230
threat score:
0.300 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.128 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.149 -0.035
equitable threat score:
-0.084 -0.100 -0.025
probability of detection:
0.545 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.158 0.524 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.750 1.000
samples: 22 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 35.48 %coverage: 100.00