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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
1
17
4
3
0
7
1
0
0
1
14
10
1
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
1
17
28
14
2
44
1
0
0
1
38
21
3
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
28
4
68
16
12
0
28
4
0
0
4
56
40
4
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
11
2
27
45
23
3
71
2
0
0
2
61
34
5
100

hitrate: 0.480 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.21 0.70 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 2.10 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.220 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: -0.028 true Heidke skill score: -0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.220 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: -0.027 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.409 0.214 0.000
threat score:
0.196 0.275 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.018 -0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.025 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.643 0.300 0.000
probability of detection:
0.237 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.471 0.571 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.471 0.682 1.000
samples: 25 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 40.32 %coverage: 100.00