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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
7
4
0
11
5
5
1
11
13
11
1
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
32
14
2
48
5
5
1
11
38
21
3
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
8
0
12
28
16
0
44
20
20
4
44
52
44
4
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
52
23
3
77
8
8
2
18
61
34
5
100

hitrate: 0.240 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 1.00 11.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.29 3.67
Heidke skill score: -0.140 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: -0.046 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.140 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.084
threat score:
0.067 0.222 0.091
threat score:
0.025 0.255 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.042 -0.064 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.058 0.038
probability of detection:
0.077 0.364 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.667 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.636 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.708 0.909
samples: 25 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 40.32 %coverage: 100.00