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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
4
3
0
7
5
7
0
12
10
11
1
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
32
13
2
47
5
7
0
12
38
21
3
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
5
14
18
14
0
32
23
32
0
55
45
50
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
52
21
3
76
8
11
0
19
61
34
5
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 0.64 12.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.24 4.00
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.085 true Heidke skill score: -0.099
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.118 true Kuipers skill score: -0.138
threat score:
0.083 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.025 0.236 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.043 -0.044
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.075 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.100 0.273 0.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.619 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.571 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.723 1.000
samples: 22 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 35.48 %coverage: 100.00