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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
6
1
0
7
5
2
1
8
18
5
1
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
31
9
6
46
5
2
1
8
43
13
7
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
8
0
38
25
4
0
29
21
8
4
33
75
21
4
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
0
14
49
14
10
73
8
3
2
13
68
21
11
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.40 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 3.54 1.14
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.049 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.350 0.091 0.125
threat score:
0.156 0.180 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.019 -0.048 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.022 -0.012 0.008
probability of detection:
0.389 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.163 0.692 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.857 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.804 0.875
samples: 24 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 38.10 %coverage: 100.00