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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
3
0
19
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
0
16
5
1
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
3
0
19
27
10
7
44
0
0
0
0
43
13
7
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
73
14
0
86
0
9
5
14
0
0
0
0
73
23
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
5
0
30
43
16
11
70
0
0
0
0
68
21
11
100

hitrate: 0.818 hitrate: 0.413
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 0.60 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 3.38 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.727 Heidke skill score: 0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.467 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.727 Kuipers skill score: 0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.381 true Kuipers skill score: 0.131
threat score:
0.842 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.348 0.213 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.421 0.248 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.092 0.024 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.372 0.769 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.158 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.158 0.773 0.000
samples: 22 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 34.92 %coverage: 100.00