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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
9
4
0
13
0
0
0
0
17
6
0
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
0
10
35
11
7
53
0
0
0
0
43
13
7
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
9
0
43
39
17
0
57
0
0
0
0
74
26
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
3
0
16
56
17
11
84
0
0
0
0
68
21
11
100

hitrate: 0.522 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.59 2.17 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 4.08 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.283 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.283 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.137 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.421 0.267 0.000
threat score:
0.178 0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.052 0.052 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.031 0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
0.471 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.186 0.846 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.692 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.792 0.000
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00