CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
9
0
0
9
6
3
0
9
16
4
0
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
36
9
7
52
6
3
0
9
43
13
7
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
10
45
0
0
45
30
15
0
45
80
20
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
57
14
11
83
10
5
0
14
68
21
11
100

hitrate: 0.050 hitrate: 0.159
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.25 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 4.00 1.29
Heidke skill score: -0.425 Heidke skill score: -0.262
true Heidke skill score: -0.145 true Heidke skill score: -0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.425 Kuipers skill score: -0.262
true Kuipers skill score: -0.375 true Kuipers skill score: -0.103
threat score:
0.059 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.023 0.161 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.039 -0.161 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.038 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.062 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.023 0.692 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.827 1.000
samples: 20 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 31.75 %coverage: 100.00