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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
2
20
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
14
5
2
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
2
20
23
11
8
42
1
0
0
1
37
16
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
62
24
10
95
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
5
67
24
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
8
3
32
37
17
13
67
2
0
0
2
59
25
16
100

hitrate: 0.619 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.54 2.62 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.429 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.057 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.429 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.042 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.619 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.295 0.234 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.000 -0.033
equitable threat score:
0.039 0.009 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.929 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.351 0.688 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.350 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.350 0.738 1.000
samples: 21 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00