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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
1
12
4
3
0
7
3
0
1
4
16
5
2
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
1
12
25
14
8
47
3
0
1
4
37
16
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
9
4
52
17
13
0
30
13
0
4
17
70
22
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
3
2
19
40
22
13
75
5
0
2
6
59
25
16
100

hitrate: 0.565 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.40 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.94 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.348 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.218 true Heidke skill score: 0.101
Kuipers skill score: 0.348 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.262 true Kuipers skill score: 0.123
threat score:
0.474 0.333 0.200
threat score:
0.225 0.286 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.198 0.140
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.056 0.030
probability of detection:
0.562 0.600 0.500
probability of detection:
0.243 0.875 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.571 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.702 0.750
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00