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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
0
15
2
1
2
5
0
0
0
0
14
4
2
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
0
15
25
13
10
48
0
0
0
0
37
16
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
60
15
0
75
10
5
10
25
0
0
0
0
70
20
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
5
0
24
40
21
16
76
0
0
0
0
59
25
16
100

hitrate: 0.650 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.07 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 3.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.475 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.176 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: 0.475 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.163 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
0.706 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.300 0.255 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.231 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.102 0.021 0.000
probability of detection:
0.857 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.324 0.812 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.729 0.000
samples: 20 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 31.75 %coverage: 100.00