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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
1
11
11
1
2
14
0
0
0
0
17
5
3
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
1
11
31
12
9
52
0
0
0
0
37
16
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
16
4
44
44
4
8
56
0
0
0
0
68
20
12
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
6
2
17
49
19
14
83
0
0
0
0
59
25
16
100

hitrate: 0.280 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.65 2.80 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 3.25 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.080 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.223 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.080 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.272 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.273 0.056 0.000
threat score:
0.143 0.214 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.102 -0.118 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.028 0.000
probability of detection:
0.353 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.162 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.769 0.000
samples: 25 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 39.68 %coverage: 100.00