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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
1
0
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
24
17
11
52
0
0
0
0
34
18
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
91
9
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
91
9
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
0
17
38
27
17
83
0
0
0
0
54
29
17
100

hitrate: 0.909 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.89 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.864 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.864 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.165
threat score:
0.909 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.286 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.140 0.056 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.294 0.944 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 0.673 0.000
samples: 11 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 17.46 %coverage: 100.00