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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
14
1
0
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
1
0
11
24
17
11
52
0
0
0
0
34
18
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
7
0
73
27
0
0
27
0
0
0
0
93
7
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
0
17
38
27
17
83
0
0
0
0
54
29
17
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.79 4.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.89 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.119 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.286 true Kuipers skill score: 0.165
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.286 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.056 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.140 0.056 0.000
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.294 0.944 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.091 0.673 0.000
samples: 15 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00