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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
27
18
11
56
0
0
0
0
34
18
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
88
0
0
88
13
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
100
0
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
43
29
17
89
0
0
0
0
54
29
17
100

hitrate: 0.875 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.88 -- --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 3.11 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.812 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.121
Kuipers skill score: 0.812 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.139
threat score:
0.875 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.206 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.107 0.050 0.000
probability of detection:
0.875 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.206 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 0.000
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00