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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
31
18
14
63
0
0
0
0
31
18
15
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
48
28
22
98
0
0
0
0
48
28
23
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.50 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.333 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 0.000
samples: 2 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 3.12 %coverage: 100.00