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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
0
0
1
1
1
2
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
17
13
63
0
0
1
1
33
17
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
50
0
75
0
0
25
25
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
52
27
20
98
0
0
2
2
52
27
22
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.71 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.556 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.667 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.333 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.730 0.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00