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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
2
4
32
16
12
60
0
0
0
0
33
17
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
50
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
3
6
50
25
19
94
0
0
0
0
52
27
22
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.266
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 3.53 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.102
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.102
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.028 0.262 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.001 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.733 0.000
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00