CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
1
2
0
3
0
0
1
1
3
4
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
17
24
17
58
0
0
1
1
19
26
18
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
0
50
13
25
0
38
0
0
13
13
38
50
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
27
38
27
92
0
0
2
2
30
41
29
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.75 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.23 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.385 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.395 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.400 0.400 1.000
threat score:
0.095 0.400 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.143 0.143 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.040 0.002 0.040
probability of detection:
0.667 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.923 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.586 0.000
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00