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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
0
2
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
19
20
61
0
1
1
2
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
0
25
25
50
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
30
32
97
0
2
2
3
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.05 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.689 0.500
samples: 4 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 6.35 %coverage: 100.00