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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
1
4
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
1
4
21
16
20
57
0
2
0
2
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
33
17
67
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
33
17
67
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
2
6
33
25
32
90
0
3
0
3
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.85 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.040 0.262 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.000 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.049 -0.030
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.719 1.000
samples: 6 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00