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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
2
0
1
3
3
0
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
18
23
60
2
0
1
3
21
18
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
0
43
57
29
0
14
43
43
0
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
37
95
3
0
2
5
33
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.33 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: -0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: -0.208 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.020 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.667
samples: 7 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 11.11 %coverage: 100.00