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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
4
10
0
0
6
6
0
0
1
1
3
3
11
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
4
10
18
15
19
52
0
0
1
1
21
18
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
24
59
0
0
35
35
0
0
6
6
18
18
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
6
16
29
24
30
83
0
0
2
2
33
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.33 2.00 0.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 2.89 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.039 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.060 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.300 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.107 0.273 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.150 -0.133 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.004 0.026
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.091
probability of detection:
0.143 0.833 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.712 0.000
samples: 17 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 26.98 %coverage: 100.00